Dave Meyer pairs a TrueWork survey of recent homebuyers with ICE Mortgage Monitor delinquency and foreclosure data to assess whether distress is spreading. He also rants against "date the rate, marry the house" advice, with mortgage rates now in the mid-7s.
The survey finds 50% need a lower rate, and 73% planned to refinance from day one. Meyer discounts it as sentiment. Nationally, delinquency is 3.53%, below 2019's 3.88%, but loans from 2022 onward are 43% of foreclosure starts. Stress is concentrated in FHA/VA loans in Florida and Texas. He puts 2027 crash odds at 15-20%, expects a trickle of motivated sellers, and advises never underwriting on a refi.