Dave Meyer, BiggerPockets CIO, reviews the winter housing market and grades four predictions he made in late summer: falling transaction volume, falling new listings, rising inventory, and nominal price declines.
Pending sales dropped 14% in one month and hit the lowest level in NAR data since 2001, lower than 2007-08. Seattle is down almost 30%. Inventory is up 5% year over year, but new listings are down, so he calls it a correction, not a crash. Fannie Mae raised its 2027 rate forecast from 6.7% to 7.5%. Only an Iran war resolution or a recession would bring rates down. Meyer advises underwriting at 7.5% and negotiating hard with motivated sellers.