Dave Meyer, who thinks 2027-2028 could be to commercial real estate what 2007-2008 was to housing, hosts Brian Burke to test whether a big buying opportunity is coming. Burke describes multifamily as a four-way collision: cap rates, interest rates, rent growth and occupancy all turned at once. Demographics and supply add pressure: birth rates have fallen for 18 years, population growth hit its lowest since WWII in 2022, immigration has dropped, and Austin and Denver were overbuilt.
Burke sees a second wave as the 10-year Treasury rises, blocking refinancing and pushing cap rates up; 4-5% caps don't work against a roughly 5.25% Treasury. He expects a multi-year trough, citing 1992, when values fell about 10% and stayed flat until 1997. He's buying no multifamily, wants about 200 basis points of positive leverage, and buys senior housing at 9-12% caps. To find deals, use lender-hired property managers, landlord associations and brokers, with soft-committed capital several times your equity need.