Chamath, David Sacks and Ben Horowitz take on the CoreWeave selloff, which dragged neocloud stocks down about 20% after its bond yields hit 15%. They then move to Anthropic's leaked investor-day numbers and IPO prospects, its critics, and the claim that Bill Gates is pushing AI doomerism.
Chamath says CoreWeave's CDS spiked to about 953 bps, implying a ~55% five-year default chance. He cites fixed-price contracts, 75% revenue concentration in three customers, and roughly $35B of financing still needed. Sacks calls it volatility, not a bubble: demand is strong, supply is scarce, loans are backed by investment-grade tenants and GPUs, and payback period (CoreWeave ~2.5 years) is the metric that matters. Ben explains why a16z avoids neoclouds, citing the bandwidth price collapse. On Anthropic ($16.8B Q3 revenue, 85% adjusted gross margin), Chamath says it should raise $200-250B at about $1T, and Ben agrees financing risk is the main threat. Sacks accuses Anthropic of fear-mongering against open-source models.